Abstract
In this article, we compare the developments of the enlargement policy after Russia invaded Ukraine to the policy prior to the invasion covering the period after the Big Bang enlargement. The widening policy before the invasion was rather inefficient because the member states governments assessed the importance of institutional binding of new members disparately, which affected the aspiring countries, as the EU appeared to be indecisive regarding the accession of new states. The perception of an increased security threat, because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, is likely to lead to a shift in the European Union's enlargement policy, including the demands for an institutional adjustment in the EU to increase its integration capacity and simplify the decision-making procedures. It is, however, questionable whether eventual institutional adjustments will produce desirable outcomes for the European Union because of the existence of different interests among the member states.
References
Ashdown, L. P. (2003). Remarks by the EU Special Representative/High Representative Paddy Ashdown to the EU-Western Balkans Summit. http://www.ohr.int/remarks-by-the-eu-special-representativehigh-representative-paddy-ashdown-to-the-eu-western-balkans-summit/
Baerbock, A. (2023). Stuttgarter Rede zu Europa von Außenministerin Annalena Baerbock. Auswärtiges Amt.
Bechev, D. (2017). Rival power: Russia’s influence in Southeast Europe. Yale University Press.
Bindi, F. (2009). European Union Foreign Policy: A Historical Overview. In F. Bindi (Ed.), The Foreign Policy of the European Union: Assessing Europe’s Role in the World (1st ed., pp. 13–40). Brookings Institution Press.
Borrell, J. (2023). The year that war returned to Europe. EU foreign policy in 2022. European Union External Action. https://www.eeas.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/2023/20230369_PDF_OF0323029ENN_002.pdf
Börzel, T. (2023). Widening without Deepening: Why Treaty Reforms Will Not Make the EU Fit for Enlargement. In G. von Sydow & V. Kreilinger (Eds.), Fit for 35? Reforming the Politics and Institutions of the EU for an Enlarged Union (pp. 54–68). Swedish Institute for European Policy Studies. https://www.sieps.se/en/publications/2023/fit-for-35/
Börzel, T., Dimitrova, A., & Schimmelfennig, F. (2017). European Union enlargement and integration capacity: concepts, findings, and policy implications. Journal of European Public Policy, 24(2), 157–176. https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2016.1265576
Čaršimamović Vukotić, N., Fazlić, S., Kadić, A., Hadžić, A., Ćosić Puljić, E., Ibrahimbegović Tihak, V., & Zhang, Y. (2017). Anketa percepcija građana u Bosni i Hercegovini 2016. http://www.measurebih.com/uimages/final_MEASURE-BiH_NSCP2016_FindingsReport-BSC_200511201720formatted.pdf
CDU/CSU. (2021). Das Programm für Stabilität und Erneuerung. CDU/CSU. https://online.fliphtml5.com/kxyi/eyjg/#p=20
de Vreese, C. H., & Boomgaarden, H. G. (2006). Media Effects on Public Opinion about the Enlargement of the European Union*. JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies, 44(2), 419–436. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5965.2006.00629.x
Delegation of the European Union in Bosnia and Herzegovina. (2023). Joint UN, OSCE, CoE, and EU in BiH Statement Regarding the RS Criminal Code Amendments Re-Criminalizing Defamation. https://archive.europa.ba/?p=78014
Die Gruene. (2021). Deutschland. Alles ist drin. Bundestagswahlprogramm 2021. Die Gruene. https://cms.gruene.de/uploads/documents/Wahlprogramm-DIE-GRUENEN-Bundestagswahl-2021_barrierefrei.pdf
EEAS. (2016). Shared Vision, Common Action: A Stronger Europe. A Global Strategy for the European Union’s Foreign And Security Policy. https://eeas.europa.eu/archives/docs/top_stories/pdf/eugs_review_web.pdf
EEAS. (2022). A Strategic Compas for Security and Defence. https://www.eeas.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/strategic_compass_en3_web.pdf
EEAS. (2023a). Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue: Press remarks by High Representative Josep Borrell after the Ohrid Meeting with President Vučić and Prime Minister Kurti. https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/belgrade-pristina-dialogue-press-remarks-high-representative-josep-borrell-after-ohrid-meeting_en
EEAS. (2023b). Kosovo/Serbia: Press remarks by High Representative Josep Borrell after meetings with President of Serbia and Prime Minister of Kosovo. https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/kosovoserbia-press-remarks-high-representative-josep-borrell-after-meetings-president-serbia-and_en
Elena, A. S. (2019). European Council in Action Western Balkans : State of play in the European Council Overview of discussions since the Lisbon Treaty (Issue October, p. 12). European Parliament Research Service. http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2018/615678/EPRS_BRI(2018)615678_EN.pdf
Euractiv. (2017). EU ministers: Balkans becoming ‘chessboard’ for big powers. Euractiv. https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/eu-ministers-balkans-becoming-chessboard-for-big-powers/
European Commission. (2011). Standard Eurobarometer 76. https://europa.eu/eurobarometer/surveys/detail/1020
European Commission. (2018). A credible enlargement perspective for and enhanced EU engagement with the Western Balkans (pp. 1–19). https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/roadmap-factsheet-tallinn_en.pdf
European Commission. (2019). Commission Opinion on Bosnia and Herzegovina’s application for membership of the European Union. https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2019-05/20190529-bosnia-and-herzegovina-opinion_en.pdf
European Commission. (2022). Standard Barometer 97 - Annex. file:///C:/Users/Len/Downloads/Standard_Eurobarometer_97_Summer_2022_data_annex_en.pdf
European Commission. (2023a). 2023 Communication on EU Enlargement Policy. https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2023-11/COM_2023_690 Communication on EU Enlargement Policy_and_Annex.pdf
European Commission. (2023b). Data Annex: Flash Eurobarometer 532 - EU challenges and priorities in 2023. https://europa.eu/eurobarometer/surveys/detail/3092
European Commission. (2023c). Standard Barometer 98 - Annex. https://europa.eu/eurobarometer/surveys/detail/2872
European Commission. (2023d). Standard Eurobarometer 99 - Data Annex. https://europa.eu/eurobarometer/api/deliverable/download/file?deliverableId=88063
European Commission. (2024). Standard Eurobarometer 101 - Data Annex. https://europa.eu/eurobarometer/api/deliverable/download/file?deliverableId=92217
European Council. (2018). Sofia Declaration. European Council. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/34776/sofia-declaration_en.pdf
European Council. (2020). EU-Western Balkans Zagreb summit, 6 May 2020. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/international-summit/2020/05/06/
European Council. (2022). European Council meeting (15 December 2022) – Conclusions. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/60872/2022-12-15-euco-conclusions-en.pdf
European Parliament. (2022a). European Parliament recommendation of 23 November 2022 to the Council, the Commission and the Vice-President of the Commission / High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy concerning the new EU strategy for enlargement. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2022-0406_EN.html
European Parliament. (2022b). The call for a Convention for the revision of the Treaties European Parliament resolution of 9 June 2022 on the call for a Convention for the revision of the Treaties (p. 3). European Parliament. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2022-0244_EN.pdf
European Parliament. (2023). Joint motion for a resolution on the recent developments in the Serbia-Kosovo dialogue, including the situation in the northern municipalities in Kosovo. European Parliament. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/RC-9-2023-0437_EN.html
Franco-German working group on the EU Institutional reform. (2023). Sailing on High Seas – Reforming and Enlarging the EU for the 21st Century. https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/blob/2617206/4d0e0010ffcd8c0079e21329bbbb3332/230919-rfaa-deu-fra-bericht-data.pdf
Freyburg, T., & Richter, S. (2010). National identity matters: the limited impact of EU political conditionality in the Western Balkans. Journal of European Public Policy, 17(2), 263–281. https://doi.org/10.1080/13501760903561450
Juncker, J.-C. (2014). A New Start for Europe: My Agenda for Jobs, Growth, Fairness and Democratic Change Political Guidelines for the next European Commission: Opening Statement in the European Parliament Plenary Session Setting Europe in Motion (p. 37). European Commission. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/juncker-political-guidelines-speech_en.pdf
Juncker, J.-C. (2017). President Jean-Claude Juncker’s State of the Union Address 2017. http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-17-3165_en.htm
Keil, S. (2013). Europeanization, state-building and democratization in the Western Balkans. Nationalities Papers, 41(3), 343–353. https://doi.org/10.1080/00905992.2013.768977
Keil, S., & Arkan, Z. (2015). Introduction. In S. Keil & Z. Arkan (Eds.), The European Union and Member State Building: European Union Foreign Policy in the Western Balkans (pp. 3–12). Routledge.
Ker-Lindsay, J. (2017). The United Kingdom and EU enlargement in the Western Balkans: from ardent champion of expansion to Post-Brexit irrelevance. Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, 17(4), 555–569. https://doi.org/10.1080/14683857.2017.1397958
Krotz, U., & Schild, J. (2013). Shaping Europe : France, Germany, and embedded bilateralism from the Elysée Treaty to twenty-first century politics (1st ed..). Oxford University Press.
Lehne, S. (2022, June 16). Does the EU Need Treaty Change? Carnegie Europe. https://carnegieeurope.eu/2022/06/16/does-eu-need-treaty-change-pub-87330
Lippert, B. (2007). Alle paar Jahre wieder – Dynamik und Steuerungsversuche des EU-Erweiterungsprozesses. integration, 30(4), 422–439. https://doi.org/10.5771/0720-5120-2007-4-422
Macron, E. (2017). Initiative for Europe Speech by M. Emmanuel Macron, President of the French Republic. https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/english_version_transcript_-_initiative_for_europe_-_speech_by_the_president_of_the_french_republic_cle8de628.pdf
N1. (2022). EU Delegation on BiH Election Law changes: This was a decision of High Rep alone. N1. https://n1info.ba/english/news/eu-delegation-on-bih-election-law-changes-this-was-a-decision-of-high-rep-alone/
N1. (2023). Kosovo Deputy PM assaulted. N1. https://n1info.rs/english/news/kosovo-deputy-pm-assaulted/
Politico. (2018). Macron pours cold water on Balkan EU membership hopes. Politico. https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-pours-cold-water-balkans-eu-membership-enlargement/
Politico. (2023). Charles Michel: Get ready by 2030 to enlarge EU – POLITICO. Politico. https://www.politico.eu/article/european-council-president-charles-michel-eu-enlargement-by-2030/
Regional Cooperation Council. (2023). Balkan Public Barometer. Balkan Public Barometer. https://www.rcc.int/balkanbarometer/results/2/public
Reuters. (2023). Serbian nationalists march in protest against Kosovo talks. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/serbian-nationalists-march-protest-against-kosovo-talks-2023-03-05/
Roth, M. (2018, June 2). Der Westbalkan ist Europas Innenhof. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 10. https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/de/newsroom/roth-frankfurter-allgemeine/2102814
Scharpf, F. W. (1988). THE JOINT-DECISION TRAP: LESSONS FROM GERMAN FEDERALISM AND EUROPEAN INTEGRATION. Public Administration, 66(3), 239–278. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9299.1988.tb00694.x
Schimmelfennig, F. (2005). The Community Trap: Liberal Norms, Rhetorical Action, and the Eastern Enlargement of the European Union. In F. Schimmelfennig & U. Sedelmeier (Eds.), The Politics of European Union Enlargement: Theoretical Approaches (pp. 142–166). Routledge.
SPD. (2021). Aus Respekt vor deiner Zukunft. Das Zukunftsprogramm der SPD. SPD. https://www.spd.de/fileadmin/Dokumente/Beschluesse/Programm/SPD-Zukunftsprogramm.pdf
The Council of the EU. (2024). Timeline - EU restrictive measures against Russia over Ukraine. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions/restrictive-measures-against-russia-over-ukraine/history-restrictive-measures-against-russia-over-ukraine/
Toeglhofer, T., & Adebahr, C. (2017). Firm supporter and severe critic – Germany’s two-pronged approach to EU enlargement in the Western Balkans. Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, 17(4), 523–539. https://doi.org/10.1080/14683857.2017.1397961
Vachudova, M. A. (2019). EU Enlargement and State Capture in the Western Balkans. In J. Džankić, S. Keil, & M. Kmezić (Eds.), The Europeanisation of the Western Balkans: A Failure of EU Conditionality? (pp. 63–85). Springer International Publishing.
Wunsch, N. (2017). Between indifference and hesitation: France and EU enlargement towards the Balkans. Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, 0(0), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1080/14683857.2017.1390831
Balkan: “Es reicht ein Streichholz,” Zeit Online (2017). http://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2017-02/johannes-hahn-kommissar-eu-erweiterung-westbalkanstaaten
Zhelyazkova, A., Damjanovski, I., Nechev, Z., & Schimmelfennig, F. (2019). European Union Conditionality in the Western Balkans: External Incentives and Europeanisation. In J. Džankić, S. Keil, & M. Kmezić (Eds.), The Europeanisation of the Western Balkans: A Failure of EU Conditionality? (pp. 15–37). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-91412-1_2